How AI may be behind drop in student visas issued by Canada to Indians
Over the past two years, Canada has significantly tightened its student‑visa regime—altering global flows and hitting Indian applicants especially hard. Among the myriad reasons cited, artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a potential catalyst behind the notable dip in visa approvals. Here’s a comprehensive look at how AI is playing a role, alongside deeper policy shifts reshaping Canadian immigration.
1. Dramatic decline in Indian student‐visa issuance
- 31% drop in Q1 2025: Canada issued only 30,650 student permits to Indians from January to March—a steep fall from 44,295 in the same period of 2024.
- Overall permit decline: Globally, study permits fell from 121,070 in Q1 2024 to just 96,015 in Q1 2025.
2. New immigration guardrails
- Caps and curricular scrutiny: A 2024 cap on new study permits (~360,000 vs. >550,000 in 2023) and the requirement of a Provincial Attestation Letter (PAL) added layers of constraint.
- Financial proof doubled: The Guaranteed Investment Certificate requirement rose from CAD 10,000 to CAD 20,635, squeezing applicants from countries like India.
- Post-study work limits: Eligibility for spousal open work permits now confined largely to master’s and doctoral students; shorter program graduates face tougher criteria.
3. Diplomatic tensions interfering
Visa processing hit new lows when Canada and India expelled diplomats in late 2023. Fewer personnel at visa offices in India dropped processing capacity—slashing fourth-quarter 2023 Indian permit approvals by 86%, from ~108,940 to ~14,910.
4. AI scrutinising applications
Increasingly, visa officers are turning to AI tools to analyze documentation—and this is where many Indian aspirants are tripping up:
- Robotic SOPs: Overuse of AI-generated statements of purpose (SOPs) leads to templated, impersonal narratives, failing to convey genuine intent.
- Raised red flags: Reviews suggest these generic, AI-like documents look suspicious—less authentic, less thoughtful.
- Expert warnings: Consultants note that applicants relying heavily on AI for SOPs are facing rejections: “Both students and their consultants are using AI… and they are now facing the consequences.”
“AI‑generated SOPs often sound robotic, impersonal, and repetitive which raises red flags for visa officers” .
Consultants now stress: craft a personalized SOP that aligns your background, academic goals, and choice of Canada as a destination.
5. Multidimensional pressure
Beyond AI, applicants confront:
- Economic factors: A 40% plus decline in Indian applications in late 2023 mirrored raised financial thresholds and inflated living costs.
- Tight labour conditions: Fewer opportunities to work off‑campus or secure post‑study employment have further diminished Canada’s appeal.
- Safety and reputation concerns: Diplomatic strains also eroded trust, with student intake slumping by as much as 80% in some consultancy windows .
6. Downstream impacts on Canadian institutions
The fallout is significant on both sides:
- Canadian colleges report job losses: Ontario institutions alone laid off around 10,000 staff due to the enrollment slump.
- Shift in student mix: With a decline in Indian enrollments, Canada is seeing applications rise from other countries—a diversification in origin countries .
7. What applicants can do
To navigate this new landscape:
- Write authentic SOPs, reflecting personal academic journeys, genuine career goals, and clear reasons for choosing Canada.
- Meticulously prepare documentation, especially credible and verifiable proof of funds and earlier financial history.
- Stay updated on policy changes: PAL requirements, new caps, work-permit rules.
- Avoid overreliance on AI—use it only for inspiration, not for generating final documents.
Final thoughts
Canada’s visa policy shift is multi-pronged: financial tightening, reduced quotas, diplomatic fallout—and now, unintended consequences of AI tools. While AI may streamline processing, it’s also enabling script-based rejections if applications lack depth and sincerity. For Indian students, success now hinges less on automation and more on authentic, well-documented, and sincerely articulated applications.
The decline in visa issuance reflects a strategic tightening in Canada’s immigration objectives—but it’s also a wake-up call. Students must go beyond AI-centric convenience to prove their intent, individuality, and capability. Only those willing to invest time, thought, and genuine effort will stand out.